Richard Silver

CREA: MLS® Home Sales Forecast Revised

Since the middle of April, the Real Estate Market has shifted again. Being so caught up in the Toronto market, it is hard to extend your thoughts into the rest of Canada but last week the Canadian Real Estate Association revised their forecast for the upcoming year. The trend seems to be not only Downtown Toronto based. Here is their recent Press Release:

OTTAWA – May 14th, 2009 – A Spring housing market that was more active than
anticipated has prompted a change to the MLS® home sales forecast issued by The
Canadian Real Estate Association for the rest of 2009, and for 2010.
National home sales activity is forecast to be down 14.7 per cent to 370,500 units in
2009. This is slightly less than the reduction in activity predicted in CREA’s forecast
issued last February. The forecast decline in annual activity was trimmed to reflect a
stronger than expected rebound in activity in British Columbia and Ontario in the first
quarter of 2009. Forecast declines in annual activity were reduced for these provinces.
They were also shaved for Manitoba, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward
Island to reflect stabilizing trends in sales activity in these provinces.
National MLS® home sales activity is forecast to rebound by 7.2 per cent to 397,000
units in 2010. This is a slightly weaker rebound than predicted in CREA’s previous
forecast. The revision reflects recently downgraded forecasts for economic growth next
year. The rebound in activity in 2010 is forecast to be biggest in British Columbia and
Alberta.
New listings on MLS® systems in British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario are forecast to
continue easing following the peak reached last year. New listings are also expected to
shrink in Saskatchewan, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. Fewer new listings
will further stabilize the resale housing market as sales activity draws down inventories.
The national MLS® average home price is forecast to decrease 5.2 per cent in 2009, led
by average price declines in British Columbia and Alberta. By contrast, the average
home price is forecast to rise in Manitoba (4.3 per cent), Price Edward Island (4.2 per
cent) and Newfoundland & Labrador (10.9 per cent). CREA’s previous forecast predicted
a decline in the national average price of eight per cent in 2009.
The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average
price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account
provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS®
average price is forecast to decline 3.6 per cent in 2009, and hold steady in 2010.
CREA’s previous forecast predicted the weighted national average price for MLS®
homes sales would decline by 6.4 per cent.
“Monthly resale housing activity improved as the first quarter progressed, entering the
second quarter on a rising trend and closing in on levels last seen before it fell sharply
late last year,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “It will take time for housing
inventories to be drawn down enough to put new home construction on a stronger
footing, but the balance between resale housing supply and demand is improving in a
number of major markets. The national average price has begun to rebound from the
recent low reached in January, and is forecast to begin rising modestly above year-ago
levels in the fourth quarter of 2009.”

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 16th, 2009 at 10:06 am and is filed under Business, Real Estate, Toronto. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

1. CREA: MLS® Home Sales Forecast Revised | Real Estate Blog International said at May 19th, 2009 at 2:01 pm

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