N. Barry Lyons' Forecast For the Toronto Condominium Market in 2013

iStock_000001210857XSmallOnce a year the Toronto Condo Network meets with N. Barry Lyons, who is Toronto’s leading Development Consultant and he gives us his forecast for the next year. Contrary to the local Media, even though he sees some pain coming in the next months, he does not see the market falling apart. He pointed out that right now the construction industry is maxed out with the amount of building of condominiums and a number of new office Towers with almost 5,000,000 square feet of Toronto Office space presently under construction. He pointed out that they estimate 5 employees per thousand square feet which would mean at least 25,000 new jobs. He foresees lots of delays in closings.

There is still a large Investor factor that is hard to measure but Barry Lyons feels that it accounts for about 60% of the buyers. The off-shore buyers are still seeing Canada as a good investment however, it looks like immigration to Toronto may be down this year. There are still about 20,000 unsold units with a balanced market being about 16,000 unsold units.

Like all of us, he is amazed at the amount of work going on in the Greater Toronto Area but is concerned that we are strangling in our own success, needing more transit and quickly. He thinks that the Eglinton Subway Line will not be the answer but feels that the discussed Downtown Relief Line may be the answer.

He is very excited about what he calls the South Core and the Athlete’s Village for the Pan Am Games. The Structure will house 10,000 athletes and their trainers and be ready to go in 2014 and is on schedule. After the Games, the rooms will be revised and new suites will be built for occupancy in 2016. He is excited about the location which will also include a new YMCA and is a well thought out community. The Athletes Village units will be sold for about $585. psf.

He ended up by asking the members of the Toronto Condo Network some questions about what we were seeing in the resale market. He voiced some concern that there may be a glut of 500 square foot one bedroom apartments do to the investor involvement. We all agreed that it would be great to get the REALTORS that sell resale to sit down with the Developers and discuss what some the of wholes were that we are finding in exiting product.

Here is a Slide-share of the presentation that was given yesterday. Should you have any questions…please feel free to comment below or email me at mail@richardsilver.com.

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