National consumer confidence ended the year 2009 on a stronger footing compared to pre-recession levels, despite having edged down slightly the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.  According to the Conference Board of Canada’s  index of consumer confidence, confidence eased slightly in the fourth quarter for the first time in three quarterly periods.  The decrease in confidence reflects weakening sentiment about making major purchases.

The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, dipped slightly into negative territory in the fourth quarter. It had turned positive in the third quarter for the first time since the first quarter of 2008. A negative balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.

The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects continued improving in the fourth quarter of 2008, staying positive for the second consecutive quarter. More survey respondents expect employment to pick up over the next six months, and fewer expect more layoffs. The balance of sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook softened marginally in the fourth quarter, but remains upbeat. A positive balance of opinion means more households said they expect their household budget to improve in the next six months than said they think it will worsen.

British Columbia 

Consumer confidence in British Columbia eased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. Moderating confidence in the fourth quarter reflects softening sentiment about households’ budgetary outlooks, job prospects, and major purchases. The balance of sentiment about making a major purchase, such as a home or a car, fell sharply and again turned negative in the fourth quarter.  It had turned positive in the third quarter for the first time in two years. A negative balance of opinion means more survey respondents said that it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.

Sentiment about job growth prospects deteriorated in the fourth quarter.  Although the balance of sentiment about near term job growth remained negative for the seventh consecutive quarter, it remained significantly less negative compared to where it stood at the height of the economic recession. 

The balance of sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook stayed upbeat for the third consecutive quarter.

Prairie region 

Consumer sentiment in the Prairie region improved for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009, returning to the pre-recession level recorded in the second quarter of 2008. Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, improved for the fourth consecutive quarter. The balance of sentiment about making major purchases has stayed positive for two consecutive quarters, returning to levels on par with the third quarter of 2007. A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market. Sentiment about job growth prospects continued improving, building on significant increases recorded in the previous two quarters. The balance of opinion about job growth has stayed positive for three consecutive quarters, and is also back on par with pre-recession levels.

The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets edged down only marginally in the fourth quarter on 2009 compared to the previous quarter.

Ontario 

Consumer confidence in Ontario dipped slightly in the fourth quarter of 2009 after having risen in each of the three previous quarters, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. The slight decline in confidence reflects weakened sentiment about households’ budgetary outlooks and about making major purchases. The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, turned negative in the fourth quarter.  In the third quarter, it had turned positive for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2007. A negative balance of opinion means more households said it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This is an important factor underlying the housing market.

The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects improved compared to the previous quarter, turning positive for the first time since the second quarter of 2006. The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets stayed positive for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009, despite having softened slightly.

Quebec 

Consumer confidence in Quebec eased in the fourth quarter of 2009 but remains well above levels recorded at the height of the economic recession, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. The decrease in confidence reflects weaker sentiment about household budgets and about making major purchases. Despite having softened compared to the previous quarter, the balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, remained positive in the fourth quarter.  This represents the third consecutive quarter in which the balance of sentiment about making major purchases stayed positive. 

A positive balance of opinion means more households said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market. The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects turned positive for the first time since the beginning of 2008. The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets for the next six months eased in the fourth quarter, but nevertheless remained positive.
 

Atlantic region 

Consumer sentiment improved significantly in the fourth quarter of 2009, continuing its rise above pre-recession levels according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence for the region. This marked the fourth consecutive increase in confidence. Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, held steady. The balance of sentiment about big-ticket purchases remained positive for the second consecutive quarter.

A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market. After improving for a fourth consecutive quarter, the balance of sentiment about job growth became positive in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is its first positive reading since the second quarter of 2008.

The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets over the next six months also improved in the fourth quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which the balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets stayed upbeat.

Re-posted from The Canadian Real Estate Association .

So I have been home a week and trying to make sense of all the information that I gleaned in the four hectic days of meetings in New York City. Instead of the usual “Blow by Blow” and who said what, I will just give you some of my impressions:

First and foremost, the four days were all about Social Media . Like it or not, just the way we used to say that Realtors with Technology will replace Realtors without it, now, Realtors and Brokers who have a Social Media presence will replace those who do not. As one of the speakers said, being a “Geek” is the norm and fashionable. Grandma’s are on Facebook , tweeting  and showing off their new IPhone !

Two years ago, consumers “got” Social Media and some of the Realtors joined in the conversation. Now Brokers, Brands and Associations are scrambling to reign in the herd and jump on the bandwagon. Guidelines  are imperative and education is needed. There will be a race to keep up the demand for more Education and tools.

Corporations are monitoring Web 2.0 . Twitter comments are being seen and reviewed in the Head Office. Customer’s Social Media Clout (Klout.com ) is being measured to gave the level of service provided. Someone with heavy clout is being upgraded in the hopes that they will “Twitter” their great customer service experience.

Traditional Media is in its death throws. Print Classified is dead. Newspaper advertising has become almost strictly Brand based. “The Digital Handshake”  by Paul Chaney . Consumer habits have and are changing faster than we are…

There is lots of new Technology on its way; WordPress  is getting strong momentum and amazing plug-ins and applications for small screen technology are becoming numerous. It is no longer enough to provide the data to the Realtor or their client; it must be formatted in an easy to use, fast and “cool” format.

Lastly, the US market is starting to move and the Real Estate Industry is much more positive there this year. Americans in general however are so focused on their own market and are so positive that they are the best, they don’t realize that there is a lot to learn from the Canadians or International Markets. They keep on referring to International attendees as being from “over the pond”. It’s too bad as they would learn from some of the Canadian experiences: Regulation is not all bad, Interest Deductibility creates entrepreneurs but a nation of debtors…Not-for-profit MLS owned by the Associations…

Inman Connect  and REBarCamps  are more valuable learning experiences and have more leading edge content than the NAR Conferences. Not that a National Association of REALTORS Conference  is not a great educational experience but it more about what is going on today rather than helping us be proactive for the future.

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards numbered 27,744 units in December 2009. This stands 72 per cent above activity in December 2008, when activity dropped to the lowest level in a decade. New records for the month of December were reported in Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales totalled 46,805 units in December, capping the strongest fourth quarter period ever. A total of 137,957 homes traded hands on a seasonally adjusted basis in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is up 2.6 per cent from the previous record set in the first quarter of 2007. New quarterly records were set in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

National sales activity began 2009 on a weak footing. Despite year-over-year increases in the second and third quarters of the year, year-to-date activity was still trailing 2008 levels at the end of September 2009. A 59 per cent year-over-year gain in the fourth quarter of 2009 pushed sales activity above annual levels for 2008.

To view the complete release, go to http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/media_dec09.pdf

Information provided by The Canadian Real Estate Association .

For copyright reasons, the Amazon Kindle has not been available on the Amazon.ca web site but we have been lucky enough to travel to the United States a couple of times and were able to download books that were in our Kindle Group archives.

I LOVE MY KINDLE !

It is easy to handle and great to know that books are available at any time day or night for you to download, or newspapers, magazines, or Blogs. Mine also allows me to alter the font and when I am beat but still feel like reading, I can plug in the head set, enable the “text-to-speech” and listen to the reader (not dramatic but accurate enough).

I’m not sure how it will work in Canada but wish that it would have been available the first day of  University back in ’68 when I left the University Bookstore laden with a fortune of heavy books that I never picked up after my 1st year. The cost of a book is at least half of what you would pay (no printing or delivery) but there is an upfront cost for the hardware…

Here is some information from the Globe and Mail . I say go for it! I would be surprised if you did not enjoy the benefits…any thoughts??

Here is the latest market report from the Canadian Real Estate Association. Take a look at the highlighted portion below as it points to a striking lack of inventory for Purchasers…but means it is a great time for Sellers to put their homes on the market. From my understanding, in a “Normal” market the inventory is about six months.

OTTAWA – October 15th, 2009 – National resale housing activity climbed to the highest level of any third quarter on record. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards totalled 135,182 units in the third quarter of 2009, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This is the highest level of activity on record for the period from July to September. The number of transactions was up 18 per cent from the third quarter of last year, representing the biggest year-over-year increase since early 2002. 

Seasonally adjusted national MLS® home sales numbered 127,941 units in the third quarter, up 12 per cent from the previous quarter. Building on two previous quarterly increases, seasonally adjusted MLS® home sales activity now stands 48 per cent above the low reached in the fourth quarter last year. 

“Momentum for sales activity remained strong throughout the third quarter,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “Low interest rates, rebounding consumer confidence and an improving overall sense of economic security continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market.”

 Seasonally adjusted sales activity in the third quarter was up from the previous quarter in over 80 per cent of local markets. Quarterly activity increases in Vancouver (34 per cent), Toronto (11 per cent), and Calgary (19 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity. Some 42,958 homes traded hands via the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada in September 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This represents an increase of 1.5 per cent from August, and lifts seasonally adjusted activity 63 per cent above the low in January. 

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS® home sales activity remained strong throughout the quarter. Resale activity in September 2009 posted the fourth consecutive increase from year-ago levels, all of which exceeded 15 per cent. Sales numbered 42,497 in September, up 17 per cent year-over-year and a new record for the month.

 Year-over-year activity increases in Toronto (28 per cent) and Vancouver (124 per cent) were the driving force behind the increase in actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity in September. Climbing to $327,736, the national MLS® residential average price rose 11 per cent from the same quarter last year.

The national average price continues to be skewed upward by a sustained increase in sales activity, including a sharp rebound in activity at the higher end of the price spectrum, in some of Canada’s priciest markets. The national MLS® residential average price surpassed all previous monthly levels in September 2009, rising 13.6 per cent year-over-year to $331,602. July and August also posted new average price records for their respective months. A number of provinces set new average price records for the month of September, and Ontario posted the highest average price on record. 

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 9.3 per cent year-over-year in September 2009.

 On a seasonally adjusted basis, the supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market edged up in the third quarter after four consecutive quarterly declines. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings were up one per cent from the previous quarter to 199,824 units. The increase reflects a quarterly rise in the number of new listings in British Columbia and Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador. New listings remained stable or continued to retreat in other provinces.

 While the small rise in seasonally adjusted new listings suggests that the number of homes coming onto the market may soon begin to edge higher, the number of new listings remains well down from year-ago levels. Barring a sudden unforeseen spike in levels, new listings are likely to remain down from year-ago levels for some time.

 Actual (not seasonally adjusted) new listings were down 12.5 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2008 after posting year-over-year decreases in each of the previous quarters. Newfoundland & Labrador is the only province in which new listings were up from year-ago levels. An increase in sales activity and fewer new listings are drawing down inventories compared to year-ago levels. There were 208,215 homes listed for sale on the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada at the end ofSeptember 2009, down 16 per cent from a year earlier. This is the fifth consecutive year-over-year decline in active listings, and the largest decline in more than six years. 

Nationally, the number of months of inventory was 4.9 months in September 2009. This is down slightly compared to August, and remains well down from the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

 The seasonally adjusted residential dollar volume for MLS® home sales increased 20 per cent on a quarter-overquarter basis to $42.1 billion in the third quarter of 2009, the highest level on record. New provincial records were also set in British Columbia and Ontario, which propelled the national figure to a new high. 

“Monthly sales activity remained on a strong upward trajectory throughout the third quarter in British Columbia, while showing signs that it may be topping out in other provinces,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “On balance, this suggests that national sales activity may be starting to plateau after having climbed rapidly earlier this year.” 

“Headline average price increases over the rest of the year are expected to prompt sellers to return to the market after having retreated to the sidelines late last year and earlier this year,” he added. “An increase in new listings will help keep a lid on price increases. Price increases over the rest of 2009 and early next year are likely to reflect declining average prices late last year and earlier this year.” 

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately. CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. 

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations,representing more than 96,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations. Further information can be found at www.crea.ca.

Our business is based on referrals and contacts but all businesses must comply. At Bosley Real Estate Ltd. we have purchased a special software that allows us to keep up-to-date with additions to the registry.

You can get information on the National Do Not Call Registry and register by clicking here. You can register all your phone numbers: home, fax, and cell phone. It seems to have made for a much quieter dinner hour at our house.

Without trying to be rude (my first instinct…), I try to point out that it is almost impossible to gauge any statistic that would reflect a world economic crisis as well as Canadian and American elections within a short time frame.

Of course, the Real Estate market will be affected much as it was on and after September 11. That was short-lived and people got passed the paralysis and life moved on.

Let’s give all this chance to settle out and remember that your home is not a stock portfolio. It is where you share time with family and friends and where your health is more important than any property valuation.

Happy Thanksgiving!!