This represented a 29 per cent decrease compared to the 3,832 sales recorded during the same period in 2009. New listings, at 4,770 were down eight per cent compared to the first two weeks of August 2009.

“Throughout the better part of the last year, the number of monthly sales was well above the expected long-term trend. Accordingly, it makes sense that the number of transactions has dipped over the past few months in comparison to last year’s record results,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston.

The average price for August mid-month transactions was $412,934 – up eight per cent compared to the average of $383,796 recorded during the first 14 days of August 2009. “We have seen a sufficient number of buyers relative to sellers over the summer months to support continued year-over-year price growth in the GTA,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Here is some information from Ann the Downsizing GURU! :

Has your home become overrun with clutter and you just don’t know how to deal with all the ‘stuff’ that you’ve collected? Don’t worry, there’s a new service in town designed specifically to help you with this dilemma – it’s called Declutter and Downsize.  We offer a range of practical and effective services for home organization. Depending on your situation, we will help you organize your current home or manage the details involved in relocating.

Ann Christie, Founder of Declutter and Downsize understands that everyone accumulates ‘stuff’.  Too quickly it’s a struggle, and often paralyzing, to figure out where to start or how you will ever get organized again.  That’s why Declutter and Downsize was started. 

The process begins with a free one hour consultation, in your home, to learn more about you, your requirements and wishes. From there a plan and timeline are developed for carrying out the decluttering or downsizing process together. We work with you to sort and organize your belongings to determine what to keep, what to give away to family or friends, what to sell or donate and finally, what to recycle or discard.  Your space will be transformed into organized functional areas that are easy to maintain, and if you are downsizing, you can look forward to a worry-free move. During the transition you will learn the skills involved in preserving an orderly home.

 To see how Declutter and Downsize can be of service to you, please call 416-961-1406 or email ann@declutteranddownsize.com.

I know because FINTRAC  (The Financial Transaction Act) has force Realtors to identify their Sellers and mine mostly seem to be empty-nesters who are moving to enjoy a new and different lifestyle. No they are not “cashing out”, they are moving ahead with new life plans.

Baby Boomer cohort #1  (born from circa 1946 to 1955) are now in their mid 50’s to mid 60’s and their children are moving on. They are a group that were very committed to home ownership and they are now living in larger-than-needed properties.

Graph of the Birth Rate in the US

Generation X and Y however are much smaller groups. The graph above says it all. It is a US graph that was available on Wikipedia but would also reflect the Canadian Boomers.

So keeping this all in mind, and with my “Crystal Ball”  what does the future hold?

•  More options for buyers moving up to larger homes. We are moving from a Sellers market, into a Balanced market and will move into a Buyer’s market.
•  A  real scarcity in the Toronto Condo Market of large Family-Sized Condominiums and rentals, causing the existing stock of larger Condos to increase in value especially in the mid-range ($500/sf).
• Activity will continue at all levels but the crazy world of multiple offers (which really only occurred in less than 20% of the offers presented) will drop off as the anxiety to Buy will diminish.
• If the housing market grows it will be led by new Canadians…

As these changes occur the Media will jump on the old “SKY IS FALLING” bandwagon. The Bubble will not burst but it may deflate a bit. Control of the market will pass from the Sellers to the Buyers. Change happens and with change comes opportunities. At the end of the day you are either buying or selling a HOME and not a STOCK or a BOND. However, if you choose to follow Real Estate as a commodity, keep an eye always on Interest rates, and demographics, especially immigration….They will give you a good read on potential value.

Those are my thought but I would love to hear yours!

CREA’s previous national forecast was heavily influenced by British Columbia and Ontario forecast trends, and this remains the case in the revised forecast. While sales activity is unfolding as expected in Ontario, the decline in affordability in British Columbia impacted sales in the province during the first quarter.

Additionally, changes to mortgage regulations announced in February are expected to marginally impact activity. The changes prompted some homebuyers to finance their home purchase before the new regulations took effect in April, which pulled forward a number of sales that would have otherwise taken place at a later date.

April also saw the Bank of Canada drop its conditional commitment to keep interest rates on hold until at least July, opening the door to an interest rate hike before then. Indeed, on June 1st, the Bank announced its decision to raise its trendsetting overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to a ½ a per cent, and indicated it expects the rate of growth to slow for consumer spending.

“Interest rates are expected to rise slowly and at a measured pace during a new era of government spending restraint, so home financing will remain within reach for many homebuyers,” said CREA President Georges Pahud.

CREA had previously forecasted sales would remain at elevated levels through the first half of 2010 before easing in the second half of the year and over 2011. While the forecasted trend for activity has not changed in CREA’s revised forecast, it has been pulled forward, with the fourth quarter of 2009 marking the peak of national activity. This has had the effect of lowering the forecast for national activity over the rest of the year and in 2011.

National activity is forecast to reach 490,600 units in 2010, up 5.5 per cent from 2009 and the second highest annual level on record. Lower expected activity in British Columbia accounts for more than half of the downward revision in national sales activity. Annual activity in Alberta was also revised downward due to weaker than expected activity in the first quarter. Ontario is still expected to see a record number of sales in 2010, but by a smaller margin than previously forecast.

Interest rate increases will contribute to weaker national sales activity in 2011. Transactions via the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards are forecast to decline 8.5 per cent to 448,700 units in 2011. Although this is a similar percentage decline compared to CREA’s previous forecast (-7.1 per cent), the downward revision in national activity levels for 2010 means that the forecast level for sales activity in 2011 has also been revised downward.

The national average home price is forecast to climb 1.6 per cent in 2010, reaching a record $325,400, with average price gains forecast in all provinces. The downward revision from the previously forecast 5.4 per cent gain reflects lower forecast sales activity in British Columbia, where most transactions are priced well above the national average.

All provinces are forecast to post modest average price gains in 2011, except British Columbia and Ontario. The forecast decline in activity is sharpest in these two provinces, with higher-priced transactions weakening most. Average prices are forecast to sag in these two provinces in the second half of 2010 before stabilizing next year. As the Ontario and British Columbia shares of national activity edge lower, there will be fewer higher priced properties in the calculation of the national average price. The national average price is forecast to decline by 2.2 per cent in 2011 as a result.

“With interest rates soon expected to rise, Canada is widely believed to be entering a typical demand-driven downturn due to recent prices increases and rising interest rates,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “A downward trend in national sales activity combined with an increase in listings will result in a more balanced market.”

“In keeping with the return of a balanced housing market and typical demand-driven housing market cycle dynamics, prices will remain stable,” he said. “Canada’s solid mortgage market trends, conservative lending practices, and prudent borrowing by homebuyers means that Canada will avoid the massive realignment in housing supply and demand being experienced in the United States. Accordingly, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing price correction.”

“The pace of transactions slowed in May following record‐setting sales in February, March and April,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Tom Lebour. “Buyers who otherwise would have been purchasing a home in May moved more quickly this year, likely to get ahead of mortgage rate hikes.”

New listings were up 38 per cent annually to 18,940. The average price for May transactions was $446,593 – up 13 per cent compared to the average of $395,609 recorded in May 2009. “The gap between listings and sales has widened, which means there is more choice for buyers,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “The annual rate of price growth will slow in the second half of 2010, from the current double digit pace into the single digits.”

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,887 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during the first two weeks of May.

This represented a seven per cent increase compared to the 4,561 sales recorded during the same period in 2009. New listings increased by 48 per cent annually to 10,059.

“The average household looking to purchase a home continued to benefit from affordable opportunities in the first half of May,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Tom Lebour. “The number of done deals will remain high for the remainder of 2010, but will dip from record levels.”

The average price for May mid-month transactions was $448,641 – up 12 per cent compared to the average of $399,811 recorded during the first 14 days of May 2009.

“The total number of homes currently listed in the GTA is now within a more normal range. As buyers benefit from more choice in the second half of 2010, average selling prices will grow at a slower pace,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Making sense of any market is difficult at the best of times but because of the lag time in reporting sales that are firm or sold conditionally, a chrystal ball can come in very handy….

Here is what I have noticed:

• There are a lot more houses on the market for sale.
• Showings have subsided but Open Houses are still quite busy.
• The number of sales has decreased leaving a lot more listings for buyers and hence a lack of urgency.
• Where move-up Buyers would have offered before selling, they are now holding back till their own property sells.
• The houses that are moving first have the most amenities: Parking, Schools, Garages, High-end Finishes etc.
• Sellers have to be calm, price realistically and manage their expectations.
• Sales are still happening, fewer with multiple offers, but they are happening.
• People are confused about the HST and think wrongly, that it is payable on resale housing. It is only payable on the services used during the sale of resale housing.

The difference in Today’s market is this:

• There was a shortage of listings in the market place from October 2009 till February 2010 contributing to a pent up demand this Spring.
• There is a strong ”Baby Boom” affect. A lot of Today’s Sellers are changing their lifestyles moving to apartments or to their Country properties. They are responsible for the spike in listings…
• Today’s Buyers are “surfers”, used to surfing Television, the Internet and Open Houses. They don’t want to see property by appointment but surf Open Houses on the weekends…

What does it all mean?

• More listings, giving Buyers more choice.
• Patience is needed if you are a  Seller or Agent.
• Buyers need to get their “ducks in a row” in terms of financing and deposits.
• Pricing can only be based on the value of the home, not the plans that you have for the money after you sell…

The reality is that most Spring markets are similar and that a market is a market: Prices go up and down, activity changes slowly at times and quickly at others… first and foremost your house is a HOME where you, your family and friends enjoy company, entertain and share your hobbies.

At the end of your life will you be thinking about the money you made in Real Estate or the great times you had in the home that you loved.

I am sure you have some thoughts so feel free to comment…

 

When people ask me what a Blog is all about and what they should write about in their Blogs, I say`Just answer the questions that your clients ask you`. It should be your FAQ`s or `Frequently Asked Questions`. 

Most of the questions asked of me deal with the Toronto Real Estate Market and how one can best profit from the seasonal changes that we see in the marketplace.

“What’s happening in the Toronto Real Estate Market?” is the most my often-asked question so here are some of my thoughts for April 5th, 2010: 

1. The March breaks have ended and both Easter and Passover are coming to an end…time to diet and also time to watch lots of product finally to come in to the Toronto Real Estate Market.
2. Interest rates may be in the rise and Buyers that are locked into committments for lower Mortgage rates will be encouraged to move forward with their purchases.
3. Spring is here and FOR SALE signs will be popping out like Daffodils. It is a seasonal occurance!
4. The Toronto Real Estate Market still is very strong. We are a service based economy in Toronto and not dealing with the recession that is really affecting the manufacturing centres.
5. The HST  is coming and though it will affect new home construction over the $400,000 price range…. in the resale market, only the serives provided at the point of sale such as Moving, Commissions and Legals fees will be HSTable…

Bottom line is it should be a busy time before the summer months. Keep an eye on my web site at www.RichardSilver.com as I have some great opportunities coming up for Buyers. Feel free to contact me to sign up for 24/7  email alerts  and I will keep you informed of any new product that fits your parameters.

Before I even “go there“…let me first say that I am speaking totally on my own behalf and not in any of the positions that I hold in organized Real Estate. This is just some of my ramblings that come in go in my mind and need a Blog outlet, so please bear with me.

I began in the business 30 years ago and when I say “the business” I am referring to Real Estate or any other service industry. We had all been trained to strive to be the best in our field. Success equates to the sale of property, a satisfied Buyer, Seller or both.

We have sales managers that create a competitive atmosphere in the office, offices that compete with each  other within a Company, Brands that compete with each other and a Government of Canada Competition Bureau that insists that the Seller or Buyer are getting a full choice of competitive options.

When we sit at the offer table with our competitors, we are sometimes successful. Of course, our clients want to work with a winner. In a busy market, a Buyer agent can be out on multiple offers almost nightly to fail and have the client hold them responsible for that failure, even when it was the client that decided that price they were willing to pay, knowing that four offers at the table meant that the buyer has a 25% chance to win the offer process. Go figure!

So Realtors, myself included, measure their own success by the number of sales we do, Offices do the same, Companies do the same, Boards and Associations do the same and our clients expect that a “Successful REALTOR“ and a “Good Market” reflects better on them.

So here is where the problem lies…REALTORS need to focus less on the deal. We provide many services to our clients,marketing, staging, advice, market history, etc. We must focus more on becoming the source of everything to do with home ownership, not just the transaction. The transaction is not the end of our relationships however, few clients ever hear from the Realtor after the deal is done. Becoming to “go-to” home ownership dude is what I aspire to…if I fall down on the job, remind me. Feel free to ask me for anything…within reason.

Recently in the United States, the National Association of REALTORS  created a web site called Houselogic.com . It is a brilliant move because it wants to make NAR and the REALTOR the go-to-place on the web for everything to do with home ownership. I applaud them and hope to offer that kind of service to all my clients.

Looking beyond the sale is what the Service Industries all need to do. I champion Social Media in my business because it allows for these conversations. I look forward to hearing from you with your thoughts and suggestions!