THE REALITY OF THE TORONTO REAL ESTATE MARKET FOR OCTOBER 2025!

From the Peak to Today: What’s Happening with Prices?

As the leaves change and we settle into fall, it’s a good time to reflect not just on the season but also on how far the Toronto real estate market has come since its all-time high in February 2022 — and where it may be headed next.

The 2022 Peak — And the Reality Now

February 2022 marked the highest average home price in Toronto history, with the GTA average price hitting $1,334,544, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Driven by ultra-low interest rates and pandemic buying frenzy, that market was an anomaly — unsustainable and emotional.

Fast forward to October 2025, and average prices have corrected significantly, especially in the low-rise detached and semi-detached segments. As of September 2025:

• The GTA average selling price is hovering around $1,082,000, down ~19% from the peak.
• Condo prices have been more resilient, especially in central Toronto, with some areas only down 5–8% from their highs.
• Sales volumes remain sluggish, but there’s more inventory, giving buyers more choice and power.

So, When Are 2022 Prices Coming Back?

That’s the big question — and the honest answer is: not anytime soon. Here’s why:

• Interest rates are still elevated compared to pre-2022, limiting buyers’ purchasing power.
• The Bank of Canada is signalling gradual rate cuts, but not enough yet to fuel a major upswing.
• Affordability remains a critical issue. Many buyers are stretching even at today’s prices.
• Investor activity is muted, particularly with the introduction of new federal and provincial housing policies.

Our forecast (and we’re not in the business of sugar-coating):
We likely won’t see February 2022 prices return until at least 2027–2028, and that’s assuming interest rates begin to fall meaningfully, immigration continues to fuel demand, and confidence returns to the market.

What This Means for You

Whether you’re thinking of selling, considering a move, or waiting to buy, it’s crucial to act based on current market conditions — not past peaks.

 If you’re a seller: Pricing your home properly is key. Overpricing leads to stale listings in today’s buyer-savvy market.

 If you’re a buyer: There’s opportunity in today’s market, especially with motivated sellers and longer days on market.

 If you’re an investor: Be strategic. Look for areas with future growth potential — especially transit-connected and densifying neighbourhoods.

 Talk to the Team That Knows Toronto Inside Out

Our team — Richard Silver, Jim Burtnick, Celia Alves, Jose” Sanchez, Bill Johnston– is here to help you navigate this market with experience, data, and strategy.