1. Near-Term Outlook (Late 2025 into Early 2026)
- CREA expects sales to bounce back in the second half of 2025, although affordability challenges are expected to linger. National average prices are expected to dip before a comeback in 2026.
- TD Economics anticipates a stronger rebound in 2026, though Ontario (including Toronto) will stay muted. GTA condo prices, in particular, may fall 15–20% from their 2023 peaks before improving.
- CMHC projects a ~2% drop in home prices in 2025, especially in Ontario and B.C., with a gradual recovery beginning in 2026 as economic conditions improve
- RBC suggests the market will decline into early 2026, even after a modest uptick in 2025, due to elevated inventory and affordability stress.
Bottom line: We’re looking at a modest, tentative recovery starting in 2026, not a robust bounce back immediately.
2. Medium-Term Outlook (2026–2027)
- CMHC expects that by 2027, much of Toronto’s pent-up demand will be met, job markets will be healthier, and housing will feel more attainable supporting ongoing price recovery
- Royal LePage (via STOREYS) anticipates price stabilization in fall 2025, with gradual appreciation into early 2026, though expectations remain modest.
What this means: Expect a balancing market in 2026, with more visible but still cautious price recovery showing into 2027.
3. Long-Term Perspective
- BMO Capital Markets offers a cautionary baseline: Even under steady economic conditions, the Canadian market (including Toronto) may not return to 2022 peak levels until around 2027.
That’s a more conservative scenario but helpful if you’re planning with a multi-year lens.
4. Market Mood & Buyer Behaviour
- CREA’s July 2025 data shows a +35.5% recovery in GTA sales since March, while the MLS® HPI index was flat month-over-month, down about 3.4% year-on-year. That signals stabilization, not an upswing yet.
- RBC’s June 2025 analysis observed a rebound in resale activity in Toronto with buyers cautiously re-entering but price momentum was not yet strong.
Summary: When Will Prices Feel “Buoyant” Again?
| Timeframe | Likely Status in Toronto Market |
|---|---|
| Late 2025 | Price softness; sales are climbing, but buyer caution remains |
| 2026 | Modest stabilization and some renewed upward movement |
| 2027 | More pronounced recovery in pricing and sentiment |
| 2029+ | Under conservative forecasts, return to 2022 peaks |
Bottom line: A truly buoyant and confident Toronto housing market especially for buyers and sellers with high expectations most likely unfolds in the 2026–2027 window, with full peak-to-peak recovery (like 2022’s highs) potentially extending to 2029 under cautious assumptions.
